Popular fried chicken industry in 2021, semiconductors and electric vehicles will appear

Popular fried chicken industry in 2021, semiconductors and electric vehicles will appear

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Say goodbye to the stormy 2020. Looking forward to this year, the global economy and industries will still face the threat of the epidemic. Semiconductors, electric vehicles, price increases and 5G, long-distance demand are regarded as star industries this year. Construction, tourism and other industries will continue Affected by the policy of real estate speculation and epidemic control.

Observing industry trends in 2020, most of them were affected by the 2019 Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19, Wuhan pneumonia) epidemic. The demand for epidemic prevention in the first half of the year led to a significant increase in demand for meltblown cloth and mask products. The global semiconductor industry benefited from panic preparations caused by the epidemic. , Remote office and teaching drove the demand for notebook computers to explode; tourism, tourism, catering, aviation and other industries were the “first row of the tsunami” and were hit hardest.

In the second half of 2020, due to the heating up of the US-China trade war, Huawei’s ban drove the advancement of semiconductors and other electronic components. The economic activity resumed in the fourth quarter and replenishment of inventory demand, which further drove the tight foundry capacity and the demand for steel and shipping Greatly increased.

The star industry in 2021 focuses on semiconductor and automotive themes

Looking forward to 2021, legal entities will select star industries such as semiconductors, electric vehicles, price increases, 5G, and long-distance demand, which will drive foundry, IC design, Wi-Fi 6, silicon wafers, equipment materials, automotive electronics , DRAM, passive components, 5G equipment and raw materials.

The semiconductor industry continues the tight supply and demand in 2020, and remains optimistic in 2021. The World Semiconductor Trade Statistics Organization (WSTS) estimates that the global semiconductor output value is expected to increase by about 8.4% annually in 2021; research institute IC Insights also predicts that the semiconductor market will grow by more than 10% in 2021.

The research institute Tuoqi Industry Research Institute clearly pointed out that in-vehicle communications, self-driving cars and electric vehicles have become irreversible development trends in the automotive industry and are also the key to driving the growth of automotive semiconductors. The automotive chip market is expected to stop falling and rebound in 2021. , Is expected to grow by 12.5%.

In addition, although some analysts believe that the market is too optimistic about Apple Car, Apple continues to develop self-driving car technology, and looks at the production of passenger cars in 2024, and its breakthrough battery technology will undoubtedly continue to become automotive and electronic technology in the next two years. One of the hot topics in the industry.

However, for IC design manufacturers, the biggest challenge for operation this year is that they will jointly face the situation of foundry and back-end packaging and testing capacity, and price hikes resulting in increased costs; if the epidemic intensifies or falls into lockdown again, it may The impact on the demand for terminal products again is a potential hidden worry facing the semiconductor industry this year.

Tight supply and demand drive price increases, passive components and shipping are expected to continue hot

Passive components are another electronic component industry with promising market conditions in the first half of this year. It is mainly benefited from the strong demand for passive components driven by 5G and automotive electronics, and Taiwan’s production capacity has not expanded as much. Multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) and chip resistors offer the most There is a chance to increase again in the second quarter.

Benefiting from the recovery of the global economy, the raw materials group performed strongly. Among them, the rapid recovery of the global steel downstream industry has led to a V-shaped reversal of steel demand, and the steel market is in short supply, and even rushing for materials has caused steel prices to continue to rise.

With the recovery of economic activities and replenishment of inventory needs, global freight has experienced multiple problems of lack of ships, lack of containers, lack of people, and port congestion since the fourth quarter of last year, ushering in the fourth quarter of the most prosperous container shipping in 20 years, except for US routes. Freight rates have soared, and the European, Mediterranean, and Asian near-ocean routes have been raised in full swing. This is rare among the industry. It is expected that the effect of lack of cabinets will continue at least until the Lunar New Year.

Notebook foundry continues to benefit from long-distance demand, and the shortage of materials needs to be overcome

In the downstream industries of the electronics industry, the 2020 epidemic has led to an explosion of remote demand, and notebook computers have a rare prosperity; in the face of vaccinations in various countries, the market is worried that the demand for notebook computers driven by the economic trend may go down, but OEMs are still optimistic about the continued demand for remote work, which is expected to push up notebook shipments to a new high in 2021; Quanta Vice Chairman Liang Cizhen is optimistic about the continuation of notebook shipment momentum. It is estimated that notebook shipments will start at least 60 million units this year.

However, foundries are also facing the challenge of shortage of parts. Peng Shuanglang, chairman of the Taipei Computer Association, bluntly stated that the panel industry is “lack of chips in one hand and glass in the other.” The supply shortage will continue into the first half of this year, especially for notebooks. The demand for computer panels has widened.

5G construction demand starts, e-commerce zero-contact business opportunities continue to flourish

After Taiwanese telecom operators launch 5G in 2020, 5G infrastructure will continue to be launched this year. It is expected that broadband access equipment, commercial network communication equipment, Internet of Things equipment, and small base stations are expected to benefit from 5G construction to drive demand.

In addition, the zero-touch trend derived from the need for epidemic prevention, including e-commerce companies such as momo and PChome, has repeatedly achieved new highs in 2020, and consumers are becoming more and more accustomed to online shopping. At the same time, due to travel restrictions in various countries, the demand for cross-border e-commerce will also increase, further expanding the business scope of the company and overseas business opportunities.

As for the industries facing challenges in 2021, in addition to the construction industry affected by the policy of real estate speculation, other industries, including tourism, tourism, aviation, and art exhibitions, continue to be affected by the epidemic control, seeking new business opportunities in the difficult situation.

Sightseeing, tourism and aviation industry to survive the epidemic tsunami

In the real estate sector, in order to curb the trend of speculation, the government last year introduced a number of measures against real estate speculation. The Ministry of the Interior launched an inspection red list, the National Development Council came up with a plan to improve the real estate market, the Central Bank had violated 10 years of selective credit control, the Financial Regulatory Commission launched a real estate project financial inspection, and the government passed the real price registration 2.0 amendment law to implement transaction transparency化.

The industry worries that the central bank’s selective credit control aftermath may be fierce and fierce, and the market may default, check out, or beheaded by then. However, some industry players believe that under the anti-speculation plan and financial control measures, the real estate market will be consolidated in 2021, and real estate transactions for self-occupation and long-term investment will become the mainstream, helping house prices remain stable.

Despite the good news about the vaccine, the global epidemic has not yet slowed down. Traveling abroad is still an unattainable dream, and the number of tourists to Taiwan has plummeted by more than 10 million. Airlines, duty-free shops, tour buses, travel agencies, and focus on international travelers The restaurants and other operators in China are still hardest hit by the epidemic.

According to industry analysts, despite the good news from the vaccine, it is still unclear what will help the epidemic slow down. The hotel industry is generally afraid to be too optimistic when looking forward to operations this year. It is expected that the situation of “prosperous housing in suburban hotels and relatively cold urban hotels” is expected.

Yunpin Hotel said frankly that the outlook for this year’s international tourists is still “quite pessimistic,” and there is no light for international tourists to come to Taiwan. The industry confessed in private that the situation this year is still not optimistic, the immigration control is difficult to relax, the number of visitors to Taiwan may reach a new low, and the industry still needs to work hard for a while.

Another industry that has been significantly impacted by the epidemic is the successive cancellation of various arts and cultural performances. The performance of overseas artists in Taiwan is restricted by the epidemic prevention regulations, and the number of performances has been reduced. I am afraid that the operation in 2021 can only rely on domestic events to support the venue.

As for the domestic auto market with hot sales last year, whether the subsidy policy of 50,000 yuan for the replacement of the old and the new is set is an observing indicator of whether the purchase will continue this year. The industry expects that if government subsidies and incentives are missing in 2021, buying will be affected; in addition, the penetration rate of electric vehicles such as Tesla continues to increase, and whether the market share of existing traditional car factories is eroded is another focus of observation.

(Author: Zhang Jianzhong, Zhongrong Feng, Jiang Mingyan, Wu Jiahao; first – Source: pixabay)